Several explorations on how to construct an early warning system for local government debt risk in China.

This paper aims to explore several ways to construct a scientific and comprehensive early warning system (EWS) for local government debt risk in China. In order to achieve this goal, this paper studies the local government debt risk from multiple perspectives, i.e., individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk. Firstly, taking China's 30 provinces over the period of 2010~ 2018 as a sample, this paper establishes early warning indicators for individual risk of local government debt, and uses the network model to establish early warning indicators for contagion risk of local government debt. Then, this paper applies the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation (CRITIC) method and coefficient of variation method to obtain the proxy variable Ⅰ, which combines the above two risks. Secondly, based on the proxy variable Ⅰ, both the Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model and coefficient of variation method are used to obtain the proxy variable Ⅱ, which comprehensively considers the individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk of local government debt. Finally, machine learning algorithms are adopted to generalize the EWS designed in this paper. The results show that: (1) From different perspectives of local government debt risk, the list of provinces that require early warning is different; (2) The support vector machines can well generalize our EWS.

Mapping 2 Decades of Research in Health Services Research, Health Policy, and Health Economics Journals.

OBJECTIVE: To identify major research topics and exhibit trends in these topics in 15 health services research, health policy, and health economics journals over 2 decades. DATA SOURCES: The study sample of 35,159 abstracts (1999-2020) were collected from PubMed for 15 journals. STUDY DESIGN: The study used a 3-phase approach for text analyses: (1) developing the corpus of 40,618 references from PubMed (excluding 5459 of those without abstract or author information); (2) preprocessing and generating the term list using natural language processing to eliminate irrelevant textual data and identify important terms and phrases; (3) analyzing the preprocessed text data using latent semantic analysis, topic analyses, and multiple correspondence analysis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Application of analyses generated 16 major research topics: (1) implementation/intervention science; (2) HIV and women's health; (3) outcomes research and quality; (4) veterans/military studies; (5) provider/primary-care interventions; (6) geriatrics and formal/informal care; (7) policies and health outcomes; (8) medication treatment/therapy; (9) patient interventions; (10) health insurance legislation and policies; (11) public health policies; (12) literature reviews; (13) cost-effectiveness and economic evaluation; (14) cancer care; (15) workforce issues; and (16) socioeconomic status and disparities. The 2-dimensional map revealed that some journals have stronger associations with specific topics. Findings were not consistent with previous studies based on user perceptions. CONCLUSION: Findings of this study can be used by the stakeholders of health services research, policy, and economics to develop future research agendas, target journal submissions, and generate interdisciplinary solutions by examining overlapping journals for particular topics.

Assessment and influencing factors analysis of economic system vulnerability of the Belt and Road Initiative countries.

Economic vulnerability is an important indicator to measure regional coordination, health and stability. Despite the importance of vulnerabilities, this is the first study that presents 26 indicators selected from the dimensions of the domestic economic system, external economic system and financial system in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. A quantitative analysis is conducted to analyze the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability of the economic subsystems and the comprehensive economic system of the BRI countries and the main influencing factors of the comprehensive economic system vulnerability (CESV) are identified based on obstacle degree model. The results show that the CESV of the East Asia, South Asia and ASEAN countries are lower than that of the Middle Eastern Europe, Central Asia and West Asia countries. The CESV of the BRI countries are generally in the middle level and the average vulnerability index of highly vulnerable countries is twice as much as that of lowly vulnerable countries. In addition, in terms of the vulnerability of the three subsystems, the spatial distribution of vulnerability of the domestic economic system (DESV) and financial system (FSV) is basically consistent with the spatial distribution pattern of CESV, both of which are low in East Asia and South Asia and high in West Asia and Central Asia. While, the vulnerability of external economic system (EESV) shows a different spatial pattern, with vulnerability of West Asia, Central Asia and ASEAN higher than that of East Asia and South Asia. The main obstacle factors influencing the CESV of BRI countries include GDP growth rate, saving ratio, ratio of bank capital to assets, service industry level, industrialization level and loan rate. Therefore, the key way to maintain the stability and mitigate the vulnerability of the economic system of BRI countries is to focus on the macroeconomic development and operation, stimulate the economy and market vitality, promote the development of industries, especially the service and secondary industries, and optimize the economic structure, banking system and financial system.

Association between breakfast consumption frequency and the risk of irritable bowel syndrome among Chinese female college students: A cross-sectional study.

ABSTRACT: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common functional gastrointestinal disorder that affects specific groups of people. The relationship between breakfast consumption frequency and the risk of IBS is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association between breakfast consumption frequency and the risk of IBS among Chinese female college students.In this cross-sectional study (n = 706) conducted in October 2018, the frequency of breakfast consumption was categorized as 0 to 3 times/week, 4 to 6 times/week, or daily. IBS was diagnosed according to the Rome III criteria and was based on the presence of abdominal pain or discomfort for at least 3 months during the previous 6 months, with at least 2 or more of the following conditions: changes in frequency or form of stool and/or decrease in pain after defecation. We adjusted for confounding factors, including age, only child (yes or no), parents' educational levels (senior high school or below, college, or postgraduate), parents' marital status (married, widowed, or divorced), smoking status (smoker or nonsmoker), drinking status (drinker or nondrinker), body mass index, and depressive symptoms. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between breakfast frequency and the risk of IBS.Among 706 participants, 23.7% were the only child in their family, and the proportion of parents divorced or widowed was 18.5%. The proportion of fathers and mothers with high school education or above was 93.3% and 96.3%, respectively. The prevalence of IBS among the participants was 17.3% (122/706). Multivariate logistic regressions analysis showed that breakfast consumption frequency is negatively associated with the risk of IBS after adjusting for confounding factors. The odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for IBS in the breakfast frequency category of 0 to 3 times/week, 4 to 6 times/week, and daily were 1.00 (reference), 0.96 (0.58, 1.60), and 0.45 (0.26, 0.78), respectively (P = .002).Our data revealed that regular breakfast consumption is associated with a lower risk of IBS among Chinese college students. Future cohort and/or interventional studies should be conducted to further explore the association between breakfast consumption frequency and IBS.

Let's go fishing: A quantitative analysis of subsistence choices with a special focus on mixed economies among small-scale societies.

The transition to agriculture is regarded as a major turning point in human history. In the present contribution we propose to look at it through the lens of ethnographic data by means of a machine learning approach. More specifically, we analyse both the subsistence economies and the socioecological context of 1290 societies documented in the Ethnographic Atlas with a threefold purpose: (i) to better understand the variability and success of human economic choices; (ii) to assess the role of environmental settings in the configuration of the different subsistence economies; and (iii) to examine the relevance of fishing in the development of viable alternatives to cultivation. All data were extracted from the publicly available cross-cultural database D-PLACE. Our results suggest that not all subsistence combinations are viable, existing just a subset of successful economic choices that appear recurrently in specific ecological systems. The subsistence economies identified are classified as either primary or mixed economies in accordance with an information-entropy-based quantitative criterion that determines their degree of diversification. Remarkably, according to our results, mixed economies are not a marginal choice, as they constitute 25% of the cases in our data sample. In addition, fishing seems to be a key element in the configuration of mixed economies, as it is present across all of them.

Estimating equivalence scales and non-food needs in Egypt: Parametric and semiparametric regression modeling.

This paper investigated the appropriate specifications of Engel curves for non-food expenditure categories and estimated the deprivation indices of non-food needs in rural areas using a semi parametric examination of the presence of saturation points. The study used the extended partial linear model (EPLM) and adopted two estimation methods-the double residual estimator and differencing estimator-to obtain flexible shapes across different expenditure categories and estimate equivalence scales. We drew on data of the Egyptian Household Income, Expenditure, and Consumption Survey (HIEC). Our paper provides empirical evidence that the rankings of most non-food expenditure categories is of rank three at most. Rural households showed high economies of scale in non-food consumption, with child's needs accounting for only 10% of adult's non-food needs. Based on semi-parametrically estimated consumption behavior, the tendency of non-food expenditure categories to saturate did not emerge. While based on parametrically estimated consumption behavior, rural areas exhibited higher deprivation indices in terms of health and education expenditure categories, which indicates the need to design specific programs economically targeting such vulnerable households.

Procedure Reimbursement, Inflation, and the Declining Buying Power of the Vascular Surgeon (2011-2021).

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate trends in Medicare reimbursement for common vascular procedures over the last decade. To enrich the context of this analysis, vascular procedure reimbursement is directly compared to inflation-adjusted changes in other surgical specialties. METHODS: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary file was utilized to identify the 20 procedures most commonly performed by vascular surgeons from 2011-2021. A similar analysis was performed for orthopedic, general, and neurological surgeons. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Physician-Fee Schedule Look-Up Tool was queried for each procedure, and reimbursement data was extracted. All monetary data was adjusted for inflation to 2021 dollars utilizing the consumer price index. Average year-over-year and total percentage change in reimbursement were calculated based on adjusted data for included procedures. Comparisons to other specialty data were made with ANOVA. RESULTS: From 2011-2021, the average, unadjusted change in reimbursement for vascular procedures was -7.2%. Accounting for inflation, the average procedural reimbursement declined by 20.1%. The greatest decline was observed in phlebectomy of varicose veins (-50.6%). Open arteriovenous fistula revision was the only vascular procedure with an increase in inflation-adjusted reimbursement (+7.5%). Year-over-year, inflation-adjusted reimbursement for common vascular procedures decreased by 2.0% per year. Venous procedures experienced the largest decrease in average adjusted reimbursement (-42.4%), followed by endovascular (-20.1%) and open procedures (-13.9%). These changes were significantly different across procedural subgroups (P < 0.001). During the same period, the average adjusted change in reimbursement for the 20 most common procedures in orthopedic surgery, general surgery, and neurosurgery was -11.6% vs. -20.1% for vascular surgery (P = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Medicare reimbursement for common surgical procedures has declined over the last decade. While absolute reimbursement has remained relatively stable for several procedures, accounting for a decade of inflation demonstrates the true diminution of buying power for equivalent work. The most alarming observation is that vascular surgeons have faced a disproportionate decrease in inflation-adjusted reimbursement in comparison to other surgical specialists. Awareness of these trends is a crucial first step towards improved advocacy and efforts to ensure the "value" of vascular surgery does not continue to erode.

When more is less in financial decision-making: financial literacy magnifies framing effects.

In recent years, the financial world has become more complex and intricate. In this context, numeracy and, particularly, financial literacy, are seen as paramount in providing consumers with the knowledge and confidence required to take part in financial markets. Despite some indicative empirical findings, it is still to be ascertained how the two competences differentially contribute to the quality of decision-making in financial contexts. Furthermore, it is still unknown to what degree financial literacy and numeracy, taken as relevant mind-ware for financial decision-making, are effective in guarding against well-documented biases such as loss aversion and framing effects. This study aims to clarify these issues by employing an experimental task, conceived as an approximation to real-world decision-making involving the sale of shares. Our results suggest that numeracy and financial literacy affect decision-making differently in a pattern that, in part, runs counter to conventional economic theory. The data indicate that numeracy promotes a pattern of choices closer to economic rationality, while financial literacy can prove counterproductive and may amplify cognitive biases, namely framing effects and loss aversion. The outcomes are interpreted in light of dual-process theories, and the political implications discussed.

Lignin for Bioeconomy: The Present and Future Role of Technical Lignin.

Lignin, the term commonly used in literature, represents a group of heterogeneous aromatic compounds of plant origin. Protolignin or lignin in the cell wall is entirely different from the commercially available technical lignin due to changes during the delignification process. In this paper, we assess the status of lignin valorization in terms of commercial products. We start with existing knowledge of the lignin/protolignin structure in its native form and move to the technical lignin from various sources. Special attention is given to the patents and lignin-based commercial products. We observed that the technical lignin-based commercial products utilize coarse properties of the technical lignin in marketed formulations. Additionally, the general principles of polymers chemistry and self-assembly are difficult to apply in lignin-based nanotechnology, and lignin-centric investigations must be carried out. The alternate upcoming approach is to develop lignin-centric or lignin first bio-refineries for high-value applications; however, that brings its own technological challenges. The assessment of the gap between lab-scale applications and lignin-based commercial products delineates the challenges lignin nanoparticles-based technologies must meet to be a commercially viable alternative.

Understanding the Economic Behavior of the Medically Uninsured in the United States.

Previous research defining the health consequences of being medically uninsured show worse access, poorer health outcomes, and higher rates of premature death as compared to their insured counterparts. Adding to this literature, the present study investigated the associative role of health insurance with personal finance health behaviors. In a representative sample of the general population, our adjusted models indicated significant relationships (both positive and negative) between being uninsured and these personal finance behaviors. Therefore, future work using longitudinal data must build upon the present study to accurately determine the relative financial risk an individual takes on by being uninsured.

Identifying environmental and economic development factors in sustainable entrepreneurship over time by partial least squares (PLS).

This study analyses the impact of environmental and economic factors consolidation on sustainable entrepreneurship over time. A model is proposed that analyses the relations between these factors and sustainable entrepreneurship over time with sustainable development goals performances and the continuation of the businesses index as variables. Using data from 50 countries, a quantitative method based on partial least squares was applied to validate the proposed model. Our findings showed positive and significant relations between environmental and economic factors with sustainable entrepreneurship over time. This implies that the countries which invest more efforts to consolidate their economic and environmental factors obtain higher durability rates for their sustainable entrepreneurship.

Lo social, el neoliberalismo y la pandemia

Reflexión sobre el momento socio-político donde hizo su aparición la pandemia, especialmente en Latinoamérica, donde se atraviesan distintos problemas sociales, sanitarios y económicos.

Building Community Well-being by Leveraging the Economic Impact of Health Systems.

Local communities face systematically deepening disparities in economic, health, and well-being outcomes. Nurses are increasingly leading initiatives to positively impact the social determinants of health in local communities. This article describes how to use the enormous economic impact of hospitals and health systems as anchor institutions embedded in local communities. By leveraging the everyday business practices of hospitals and health systems, such as hiring, purchasing, and investing, nurses can help to transform the economic and consequent health well-being of socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals and neighborhoods. Hiring, purchasing, and investing in nearby neighborhoods build community wealth through both gainful employment and subsequent recirculation of money locally. Improving the economic viability of the local community positively impacts concomitant social determinants of health. Nurses, with their experience and expertise in collaboration and communication with diverse stakeholder and with their high ranking as the most trusted profession, are natural leaders to build community networks and partnerships that promote community transformation for well-being.

"Understanding growth convergence in India (1981-2010): Looking beyond the usual suspects".

The literature on growth convergence has focused to a great extent on the role of initial incomes as a primary determinant of long-term growth outcomes. Expanded versions of growth models have used other explanators to unpack the growth process. In this paper we add to the literature in two significant ways: (a) we use socioeconomic variables that are sometimes overlooked in explaining growth (such as, political stability and political alliance, social heterogeneity, and demographic distribution), and (b) we demonstrate that earlier analyses may be overlooking the problem of normality and endogeneity in regression models (and we provide alternate methods like instrumental variable and distribution dynamics to control for these). In this paper we analyze the per capita income growth at the subnational level in India for the period 1981-82 to 2010-11 using an expanded growth framework. We find that initial incomes, the ratio of working age group to total population, political stability and alliance, and the extent of development expenditure play a positive and significant role in predicting growth. We also find that, contrary to popular belief, the presence of marginalized groups-namely Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes-have not been a hindrance to growth of per capita incomes in states. Our findings on the influence of social institutions may have significant implications for a public policy of affirmative action in India. The results on the impact of development expenditure on growth is also important for states seeking to increase their growth rates through policy intervention.